calculated risk

An action taken even though it might fail, because not taking it might be more dangerous. The term comes from World War II, where it was applied to the chances of losing bombers, personnel and equip- ment, weighed against the benefits of hurting the enemy. It soon was trans- ferred to other situations. For example, “‘You don’t know a thing about him.’ – ‘It’s a calculated risk’” (Robert A. Heinlin, Double Star, 1956), or “We took the calculated risk of . . . using inanimate mother surrogates rather than real mothers” (Science, Aug. 21, 1959).